Crane Recovery Soon Reducers Welcome Opportunities


Published:

Sep 12,2020

In recent years, the downward pressure on domestic economic growth has increased, the pains of economic restructuring have intensified, and the internal and external demand situation is grim, posing great challenges to the construction machinery industry. The real estate industry, which is highly related to construction machinery, continues to decline, with engineering hoisting machinery bearing the brunt. According to statistics from the Construction Machinery Industry Association, the total sales volume of cranes in 2016 was 15,957 units, down 3,063 units from 2014 and 16.1% from the same period last year. Since 2012, it has continued to decline, with an average decline of more than 15%.

In recent years, the downward pressure on domestic economic growth has increased, the pains of economic restructuring have intensified, and the internal and external demand situation is grim, posing great challenges to the construction machinery industry. The real estate industry, which is highly related to construction machinery, continues to decline, with engineering hoisting machinery bearing the brunt. According to statistics from the Construction Machinery Industry Association, the total sales volume of cranes in 2016 was 15,957 units, down 3,063 units from 2014 and 16.1% from the same period last year. Since 2012, it has continued to decline, with an average decline of more than 15%.
In the first quarter of 2017, the sales volume of cranes was 3,814 units, up 110.4% year-on-year. In March, the sales volume of cranes in a single month was 1,767 units, up +80.5% year-on-year and +39.6% month-on-month, with positive year-on-year growth for 7 consecutive months. In fact, this growth could have been predicted as early as after the third quarter of 2016 when excavators showed a clear warming trend, Excavators, as a leading indicator of the recovery of the construction machinery industry, after the recovery of their sales data, we judge that there will be sales growth of cranes and concrete machinery in turn, with a time lag of about one quarter to half a year. Therefore, we expect crane sales to increase by more than 30% in 2017.
According to the data of "Analysis Report on Market Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning of China's Reducer Industry from 2017 to 2022" released by the Prospective Industry Research Institute, Downstream application industries of reducers mainly include various fields of national economy and national defense industry such as lifting transportation, cement building materials, heavy mines, metallurgy, electricity and aviation ships. Among them, the number of reducer products used in lifting transportation industry accounts for 24.76%, the number of reducer products used in cement building materials industry accounts for 15.25%, and the number of reducer products used in heavy mining industry accounts for 9.88%.
We expect that the driving factors for the recovery of the crane industry are mainly based on the following two aspects: the recovery of infrastructure construction demand and the superposition of renewal demand.
First of all, infrastructure and real estate drive new demand. The application field of crane is mainly infrastructure construction, mainly including railway, highway, water conservancy and other infrastructure construction, and infrastructure construction is a continuous process, lasting at least 3-4 years. At present, PPP mode is vigorously promoted in infrastructure in China, and demand in infrastructure fields such as urban rail transit, railway trunk and branch line construction, mines, farmland water conservancy, etc. has picked up. The supply-side reform in 2016 has driven up the prices of coal, steel, cement and other products, thus promoting the sales volume of large-scale construction machinery products.
Secondly, update the drive brought by the superposition of demand. Recently, upgrading accounts for a large share of the sales volume of construction machinery. Generally speaking, the life span of construction machinery is 6-10 years. At present, it is 6-10 years from the last peak period (2007-2011) in the construction machinery industry. There is much room for upgrading in the next 2-3 years. The truck crane industry sold a lot from 2010 to 2011, with annual sales exceeding 30,000 units for two consecutive years, reaching the highest sales volume in history.
Lifting and transportation equipment, as the most widely used industry of reducer, will develop rapidly with the steady development of China's economy and the improvement of the international economic environment. At the same time, the development speed of crane industry will directly affect the growth speed of reducer market demand. It is expected that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China's hoisting and transportation equipment manufacturing industry will continue to maintain the momentum of rapid growth. Thanks to this, the demand for reducers will also be effectively stimulated.